Pew poll and female perception bias
Blogger SOBL draws attention to the recent Pew research poll which shows a large bounce for Romney after last week’s debate. SOBL suggests that I “called it” by arguing that Romney stood to gain most among female voters because what they saw of him in the debate was far different from what they’d been told to expect.
The Obama campaign hurt itself by perpetuating such strong opinions about Romney which set high expectations for his villainy in place. When those expectations were not met, Obama’s (or his surrogates’) strategy backfired. Basically, Mitt Romney was a myth – a piece of gossip. Given the media’s strong influence, women hadn’t seen much of Romney and they had a certain strong expectation of what to expect from him. He wants to steal from poor people and force raped women to give birth. Romney didn’t come off that way, which is why he made his biggest strides among female voters.
Here is the relevant table, and here is Andrew Sullivan on the same topic:
That is a huge shift. An 18 point shift and a dead heat among female voters. Since the overall swing was only 12 points, something that Romney did or said must have appealed to this cohort. To drill down even further, there was a 22 point swing among likely white female voters whereas there was only a five point swing among white men.
To add to this, it is a sad state of affairs that this voter cohort receives so much focus.