Samuel Goldman responds to a piece by Matt Yglesias who responded to Ross Douthat’s lament at the declining birth rate. Douthat mentioned that policies in Sweden and France have provided evidence that supports for middle class families with kids has helped increase the birth rate.
Goldman points out that even with inducements and supports on the order of 0.8% of GDP in Sweden ($120 billion per year, at the U.S.’s scale), the birth rate is still far below replacement level, at 1.8 rather than 2.1. Goldman reiterates Douthat’s point that cultural roadblocks are more important to the conversation than the power of inducements and incentives:
But there’s not much government can do to encourage people who regard children as a burden to produce them. Only a major cultural change could do that. In this respect, the demographic future of Western societies may depend on the fate of their religious traditions much more than on their tax codes. I’m not holding my breath for neo-liberals to acknowledge that.
Religious tradition plays a big part, for sure. But for some reason Facebook preggo photos popped into my mind. I hate these pictures, the ones where chicks show off their baby bumps on their Facebook pages. But I do recognize the positive aspects of it, even if I lament the gimmickry. It’s the baby cult, and it is a way to organically reinforce reproduction. By making it about being part of a club you get a bunch of yea-saying wannabe moms to rally around each other and throw “likes” at each others inane bump pics and then a lot of the other women will want to join in on the reindeer games. That’s one difference that probably is correlated with more religiosity in America. Motherhood is passe in Europe, and in many American quarters too.
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Don’t forget ignorant Malthusian claptrap and lefty bigotry toward anything which suggests normal and traditional behaviors.
response to a reply to a lament yawn
People of Color have many children
all the childless white west has to do is import them and all will be well
also white women are intersted in having babies with MEN (ie Men of Color
‘anti-racist’ is obviously a mildly deranged WN troll. Why hasn’t Chuck banned him? Free speech is a legal principle that doesn’t apply to social spaces.
The absurd “we must always have more and more people!” line is as tiresome as it is ridiculous. In 1950 the U.S. population was about half what it is today. Oh my, it must have been a veritable hell-hole!
Yes, yes it was. Social cohesion. Very little crime. Virtually no people other than whites and a small percentage of blacks. No vibrancy! Open spaces everywhere! Suburbs that were as much farm land as housing tracts. Easily affordable housing! Manhattan was a middle class city. Robust manufacturing economy. Real food to be had, little mass produced slop. A man could raise a family on his own salary while his wife stayed home. Churches full every Sunday. CEOs living lives not much different than their employees.
God, how did anyone stand it? Thank god we shifted to a relentless, mind-numbing need for PROFIT ABOVE ALL ELSE allowing a super-wealthy mandarin class to crush the rest of us useless wage slaves. Things are so much better now!
Stratton, that self-annihilation column reminds me of one overriding reality that trumps all other chin-stroking over the fate of the West:
In not too long a time, perhaps even a few generations from now, leftoids like her are going to be essentially extinct. And then she won’t have to worry about people like Douthat writing stuff which makes her hamster hurt.
peterike is correct as well. The US was a fine and wonderful place to live when it had only 150 million people, instead of the current 300+ million. The difference then I should hope does not need spelling out.
From back in the horrible non-vibrant US of A… this was your office party, circa 1925.
http://www.shorpy.com/node/5120
It’s like heaven. No NAMs. Almost no fatties. A bunch of really attractive women and some… not so much. Everyone dressed respectably. And the women look nice! Not like insane sluts.
Awwww, dems was dah dayz!
Life in monocromatic America sucked
unless you wrer a white melae life was aliving hell
there was no diversity, `
I consider the Facebook baby photos and happy marriage posts counter-propaganda to Hollywood’s demonization of the nuclear family. Sure, it is a one sided representation of marriage and having kids, but it’s just the other side of the coin to the awful portrayal of family life in Hollywood. Facebook is more realistic because at least the people are fat.
Pre-1965 US isn’t just another time, it’s another world.
Peterike – That Shorpy pic of the 1925 Christmas party demonstrates another important thing. Find one fat girl in that entire picture. Compare that picture with the common office party picture today. I think Heartiste has a point about female obesity and declining white birth rates.
anti racist is a fun troll. However for a taste of the good life he ought head to Lagos, Mexico City , Brazil or Beijing (actually scratch Beijing, the birth rate is lower than any White land) and see how good it is, dirty, polluted and dangerous . Even Moscow, which is a mess is better than any of those places
anti racist, women back than were mostly happy compared to modern women who are never happy. Women being, well women are easily lead and even more easily convinced they are unhappy and when they got what they wanted, they found out that for most of them, some 80% or more found out it sucks,
Also thing were actually way better for Blacks segregation or not, they had stable families, there were fewer gangs, and many fewer men ended up dead, addicted or in prison. It wasn’t paradise and yes there was untoward discrimination and poverty but thing were better for them too.
As for Asians and Hispanics, there were almost none. Most Hispanics learned to blend and did just fine.
The Native Americans? About a push I’d say.
So on the whole, post WW2 peak America was better for almost everybody.
To a last point, people of color are starting to have less kids at a faster rate than Whites, so don’t get your hopes up. Whitey might surprise you and future Whites, well you won’t like them very much nor they you
That Shorpy pic reminds me of the photo at the end of The Shining, lol.
peterike, anti-racist:
The apparent presence of only blacks and whites in the 1950s is not entirely due to different ethnic make-up pre-1965, it is also due to different ethnic perceptions. I listen to a 1950s radio show and in one episode the protagonist laments life for those in the LA ghetto, with two interesting facets: It is assumed that they are not without fault for the conditions they live under, and it is assumed they are white, despite mostly Hispanic names.
Great point about Facebook being the anti-TV.
“Motherhood is passe in Europe, and in many American quarters too.”
It’s probably a good thing, though, since those for whom motherhood is passe would make some of the least desirable mothers.
Off-topic, but here’s an interesting story about race and gentrification: http://www.dnainfo.com/new-york/20121204/park-slope/rumors-race-cause-park-slope-parents-shun-ps-282-supporters-say
People don’t have time for children anymore. Most people spend all of their at or preparing for work. Plus there is what parenting has become today. Constant shuttling around of children from this location to the next for activities XYZ , none of which Lil Johnny learns to master .
No more of that Made Men lazez faire style parenting of ” go outside and don’t come back until the street lights come on”.
. No close family members to take on some of the burden. Disrespectful aggresive teenagers whom you can’t take down because of the law. More debt (in addition to mortgage and student loan)to take care of them.
A marriage that may not last.
If you’re a woman the kid may destroy your body, I’m talking stretch marks leaving your stomach looking like an atlas and low hanging tits like a tribal woman in National Geographic mag.
Who the hell want to take on the risk.
Uh I agree with peterike for once. Well said sir.
Peterike’s first comment for the record.
Phillyastro- I see a few plump women in that photo and I guess some of the men in these parts would call them fat. There were plenty of plump people around then but few modern American fat people.
Most western countries have a progressive income tax. That is the RATE goes up as you make more. That being the case, the tax rate should be based on PER CAPITA family income. That is, a family of five with an adjusted gross income of $200,000 should be taxed as five people, each making an adjusted gross income of $40,000. This also encourages the wealthier to have more children, and doesn’t benefit the poor for having more kids.
I guess all western governments pretend to be blank-slaters, this must be why they pour so much money into welfare. The world is surely getting dumber – all the high iq populations are in negative population growth. Maybe there are some exceptions such as Israel and maybe SIngapore, but they are some of the few countries that acknowledge reality and implement pragmatic policies.
Seriously, what would be the issue with letting middle class families income split for tax purposes? Maybe just maybe a single income family could have a chance. I’ve seen what happens in the expat world when the partner is is stopped from working, they either have more kids or become hugely involved in the community.
re peterikes first comment, I wonder how many young people would hand in their smart phones to go live in the 1950 US? Probably many.
“The absurd “we must always have more and more people!” line is as tiresome as it is ridiculous. In 1950 the U.S. population was about half what it is today. Oh my, it must have been a veritable hell-hole!”
True, and in isolation a low birthrate would be great. More to be divided among the rest, like after the black death. But in America a low birth rate DOES NOT lead to a declining population. America is not isolated. Also it is a “democracy”. So if your birthrate is too low you will be pushed out. There are no hereditary metics in America. Everybody born here is a citizen.
I was thinking exactly the same thing Cloudswrest. Maybe governments can only see in 4 year terms and want the money now now now. Basically eating the seed corn.
If your country found it’s own Lee Kuan Yew would you vote him in?
People who think 1950′sAmerica is superior to the modern day world are people who can’t hack it in the real world. Today’s world has no use for the weak and the non-hardworkikng. RIDE ORN DIE
In that Shorpy photo, the “woman” next to the one in the police helmet HAS to be a drunk guy in drag. No woman looks that masculine.
Only wankers like anti-racisss think Reddit is a credible source of information.
@peterike “The absurd “we must always have more and more people!” line is as tiresome as it is ridiculous. In 1950 the U.S. population was about half what it is today. Oh my, it must have been a veritable hell-hole!.”
I’m not opposed to more people as long as they’re people who are net contributors. Unfortunately our society has rot from the inside out and back again. Even (especially) the very rich in modern American are not net contributors to society but rather leeches and drains. The ideal of everyone in society doing their part to produce more babies (and work, and otherwise contribute to society) is a great one, but it’s probably only workable with a homogenous population. The US has long passed that point unfortunately.
As for the photo, there are some chubby/dumpy people there, but it *is* amazing looking back and seeing that less than 50 years ago the world wasn’t overrun with fat people. Almost seems like it was intentional to get everyone fat and feed the men testosterone-suppressing hormones while all the women took birth control and other hormones.
Using birth data from the geographical area of France as an argument for or against a policy is problematic as hell since it ignores the all-important elephant in the room, namely very different fertility rates for different ethnic groups.
Since the French in all their egalitarisme systematically avoid gathering data from different demographics, the real values have to be teased out indirectly, as done in this AltRight article: http://www.alternativeright.com/main/blogs/hbd-human-biodiversity/the-africanization-of-france/
The numbers are inaccurate (and surprisingly high), but they do pass the smell test based on what I saw in Paris recently.
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