He casually mentions so in a post at AEI.
He’s looking at voter demographics and took for granted that the GOP was imminently doomed due to its location on the bad side of the minority voter bulge. He looks a little deeper and isn’t quite as disturbed:
And yet, when these numbers are plugged into the standard arithmetic for predicting voting outcomes, the expected increase in the Democratic vote in 2016 is not five, six, or seven percentage points. Nor even one or two percentage points. The demographic changes I just described may be expected to produce an increase in the Democratic presidential vote of just three-tenths of one percentage point.
How is that possible? Because I neglected to mention one other set of numbers that goes into that arithmetic, also produced by the Census Bureau in periodic special surveys for the November Current Population survey: Voter turnout. In the presidential elections from 2000 through 2008 (the 2012 figures aren’t yet available), the percentage of Americans eighteen years and older who actually voted averaged 57%. But those percentages varied widely by ethnic group. Among whites, the average turnout was 64%. Among blacks, 57%. Among Latinos and Asians, just 29%.
That’s why the headwind is so feeble in the near term. Between 2012 and 2016, the Census Bureau estimates that the population of voting-age Latinos will increase by 3.9 million people compared to an increase of just 1.8 million whites. But because of their much lower turnout, the expected increase in Latino voters is 9,513 fewer—yes, fewer—than the expected increase in white voters. The only reason that the Democrats can expect even a microscopic 0.3 percentage point increase in the 2016 vote is because of an increase in the black voting-age population.
He thinks the GOP has a few elections left before they face insurmountable headwinds. And, of course, the GOP won’t just remain stagnant.
To be specific, suppose I assume that the overall turnout rate for Latinos and Asians will linearly converge on the African American turnout rate of 57%, reaching that point by 2040. Leaving the other parameters unchanged, the expected Democratic vote for president will rise from 51% in 2012 to 55% in 2024 and to 64% by 2040.
He mentions the marriage gap as well; the trend towards singledom doesn’t bode well for the GOP either. But he points out that higher birthrates among marrieds, who tend to vote conservatively, compounds on the correlation between the voting patterns of parents and children.
Like this:
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So basically it’s just the tip for a couple more national elections until the full length and girth of the ass-ramming of whites unable to afford secluded gated whitopias reaches ejaculatory inevitability.
Not to toot my own tuba-sized horn, but I’ve been predicting this fate since before it became a BIG ISSUE TO TALK ABOUT amongst GOP operatives and alt right thinkers. Romney may have suffered the loss of some electoral votes because midwest working class whites stayed home this past election, but the bigger trend — that massive hispanic and asian immigration spells doom for any gop or right-of-castro pol — is the one to worry about, and the one that will eventually crater the USA of old. And then I will enjoy the biggest “i fukin told ya so” the world has ever heard.
The doom is baked into the cake, but one thing to consider is how a generic GOP candidate like Romney received a higher % of the white vote under age 30 than Reagan received of the overall white vote in ’84. What if the Boomer manjaw bitches who had zero or one child die out, their lines (and beliefs) die out, and the white vote moves further and further right? Does Murray take that into account? I know a lot of SWPLs with no kids around age 40 and Boomers w/o children and grandchildren. They can adopt a black kid, but he or she wasn’t going to vote GOP anyway. My grandfather was a Truman style Democrat who turned into a Reagan Democrat who then swore the Dems were everything McCarthy warned him about 50 years earlier. This drift politically as well as pure birth numbers with the raw totals may make a difference.
It’s United States of Brazil or a Break Up 2030!
“What if the Boomer manjaw bitches who had zero or one child die out, their lines (and beliefs) die out, and the white vote moves further and further right?”
There are only two ways out of the doom that is now rising like the Kraken from the depths:
1. Rev up the cattle cars and deport all illegals (or, if you have a bleeding heart, punitively fine and jail employers so the illegals self-deport), end family reunification and H1B visas, repeal the 14th amendment and end birthright citizenship, institute a 50 year moratorium on all non-European immigration.
2. Through some alchemical magic whites begin voting as a bloc. I’m talking 75%+, all white demos, for right-leaning candidates starting… now.
Now, ask yourselves, what are the odds, absent armed insurrection and mass military insubordination, one of those two things will happen before the doom scours away successful America and replaces it with shitty America? 1 in a billion? 1 in a billion trillion? Zero?
So, yes, the doom is baked in the cake. Poolside, baby. There’s really no other choice.
I am white and do not have any children. What do I care about the future?
Chuck:
Just curious – you think Murray reads, or is at least aware of, your site? I am certain he reads Sailer, but not so sure about the other HBD-leaning sites. (Don’t know if I can imagine him reading Heartiste, but that would be amusing.)
Heartiste said:
“I’ve been predicting this fate since before it became a BIG ISSUE TO TALK ABOUT amongst GOP operatives and alt right thinkers.”
Well the alt-right has been beating this drum for at least half a decade now (not sure if you pre-date that). The pitiful mainstream GOP just got on it about 3 months ago.
CH wrote:
Your binary freak-out presumes that the solution is political and that we can only find satisfaction at the ballot. This is the hallmark of the left, the inability to imagine a solution outside of official concerted government action: “The personal is the political.”
The bloc is already forming. Except whites are not quite so “colorful” and histrionic about their grievances or their solutions. Because we aren’t stupid. Because we don’t tip our hand. Because we smolder, strategize, prepare, then explode, smartly and efficiently. One in a billion? Try nine in ten.
Take a trip outside the megametrosexualopolis. You might have had a point in another age, when the urban/rural divide meant everything, where cities and borders and territory mattered to the gathering of forces. But just as I am now speaking to someone in a cowtown in Iowa, I am also reaching the besieged holdouts in SWPL towers.
Don’t underestimate the enemy, of course. At the same time, don’t overestimate them as so massive (“billion trillion”) and indomitable (“Kraken”) that we have no choice but to scurry into a spiderhole and chew our fingernails. They are the most effete men ever allowed to exist in the history of the world. They cry at gay weddings. They take their wives’ names. Listen to them talk, for fucksake. There is no gravel in their voice, no steel in their soul. They are skinny ironic hipsters with Afro Studies degrees. They are corrupt bureaucratic rats who flee from the sound of boots. We are blessed to have such enemies.
You quake at an army that lazily rallies to a rainbow fag flag? The “Occupy” movement was their dress rehearsal. I am not afraid of an enemy who marches to the sound of a bongo circle.
This:
Is Not This:
Matt
@CH – There is zero chance in our current environment of this happening. The only hope is a shock to our system and a massive currency crisis subsequently followed by an expansion of NAM violence to levels in the late-80s/early-90s, which with the internet, the media will not be able to hide. Imagine a rerun of the late 80s DC/NYC all over again. I do think the cheap, easy money funding the welfare state and the cathedral is the achilles heel of the system, but I’m being optimistic. That might get the needle moving, but I doubt it. As I said, it’s US of Brazil with all of its warts or a break up. Those lefty Eloi can secluded from Morlocks as much as possible, but not always. Larry Auster is right to call the suicidal white libs Eloi. The Eloi in the book didn’t care, didn’t feel and didn’t have any passion in life.
I can’t type “poolside”. I have a son. I have to think beyond myself. Every move I make is to get past that hurdle to secure my gated community because 3rd world America is coming. I’m pointing at 2025+/- as the crisis peak, and the outcome will be Brazil or a break up, and don’t worry the global, socialist technocrats have had their eyes on the crown jewel of America for decades.
young:
as much as i think it would be cool if he did, i doubt he reads it regularly. perhaps he comes across an article here and there. i often do wonder who is the most high-profile person to ever lay eyes on my blog. the most high profile commenter and most high-profile regular readers. i know sailer wonders if David Brooks reads him regularly, and Obama reads Brooks. this is some Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon stuff i guess.
CR, it is an interesting question. I’ll tell you this, any typical, heartland or SWPL American who stumbles across a “dark right” or hbd or game blog is going to mouse click away from the experience a lot more shaken to the core — and exposed to new ideas — than he would had he stumbled across a Daily Kos retread or an Andrew Sullivan paint-by-numbers sputter or a NYBetaTimes regurgitation. This sphere may never get big in raw numbers, but it will have disproportionate influence over any future tipping points toward realism.
The old America didn’t like voting for liberal Democrats all that much, so they just imported a new one that would. Whether you like the Democrats or their “browning of America” strategy or not, you can’t deny the fact that it’s worked very well for them.
You run Romney in 1980, he wins 40 states and 400 EVs. You run Reagan in 2012, he wins 25 states and around 230 EVs — a little better than Romney but still not good enough to beat Obama.
I wouldn’t say the GOP is completely finished though. After several defeats they’ll regroup and become something else. just as the Democrats had to in the early 20th century after their many defeats at the hands of Lincoln, Grant, McKinley, etc.. But the small government, pro-freedom, pro- free enterprise version of the GOP is pretty much dead.
The only problem with this analysis is that these kinds of men generally aren’t in charge. If you think that leaders in government agencies, and leaders of industry are crying at gay weddings you are wrong.
They are actually alpha males or coldly detached betas who are gleeful at the masses of men that have turned into women. Also lots of these preening faggots are on the “Right” as well. If anything the dissident right, the alt-right, or whatever you want to call it seem at least to me to be much more likely to be kind of effeminate, and nerdy than mainstream Republicans.
Even the hard right White Nationalits and Neo-Fascists are kind of goony and sissy seeming. The effeminacy of modern man has spread far outside the boundaries of the radical chic left. It’s certainly more predominant there, but it also afflicts many allies, and even potential allies among the current crop of left-wingers. The distinction between right and left here is that right-wingers have the sense to be ashamed of weakness instead of praising it, but that doesn’t make them strong, it just makes them ashamed.
Chuck:
What you said sounds plausible.
We know that Derb is a daily reader of many HBD blogs and while not exactly at the top of the punditry, he did write for NR and is somewhat infamous (even before his “Talk”).
As for who is the biggest? Who knows; we know big name people will never admit to it.
Obama reads David Brooks, well I guess now we know why Obama is so dumb
The key as Murray I think alludes to is the working-class white vote, those who are being left behind in the globalization race and feel no incentive to vote. Provide an incentive for them to come out and combine them in a coalition with largely married-whites, a substantial minority of conservative Hispanics (can be done, although it will be a challenge)/Jews/Asians/African Americans/single whites, and I think there is reason for hope. Again though, it will be a tough nut to crack; it sure would be nice if there were some Republican candidate out there with the political skills of a FDR, but alas I don’t see one right now.
No man is in charge over there. Ideology is in charge. “History” is in charge. They don’t believe in great men, they believe in the preordained inevitability of “Progress.”
It isn’t a left/right divide, even though the pansy infection (Orwell’s “pansy left”) manifests itself in a greater proportion on one side. Yes, Last Men can be found across the political spectrum, but manliness of any kind is the uniting factor. Conservatives are uniting with libertines are uniting with NAM’s. So long as they display the requisite nut. The masculine against the faux-masculine feminine will make for a short fight.
Matt
“I will let my arms either rest at my sides or clasp my hands at their natural meeting place right in front of my junk.”
OT, but your sentence reminds me that until the guy went off on the TSA guy and his comments found widespread ink, I’d never heard the word “junk” in reference to a man’s genitals, and I’d just like to say I am saddened it’s in use.
I like men and appreciate their emotional and physical differences from us women and “junk” is not worthy of that part of the male’s anatomy . It seems a negative word in the way “package” is not.
Not really, no. I really don’t even know what you are saying any more anyway.
Once more for the slower students.
When facing a complete cultural meltdown the temptation is to assume the conflict will be demarcated along political preferences. This is the pansy left’s mistake. And the pansy right’s. Our manliness or femininity precedes policy difference and even cultural environs. This is the great discovery of game. This is why disparate issues are rooted together between HBDers, the manosphere, PUA’s, and the alt-right. The collection of concerns isn’t idiosyncratic or eclectic or coincidental. They aren’t a hobby. They are driven by a primal force we are just beginning to getting our arms around — both artistically and qualitatively.
What HBD number-crunchers miss (though perhaps intuit) is the continental, subterranean undercurrent which cannot be detected along political or economic metrics. Of course you “wouldn’t even know” how men are putting aside superficial political disagreements to address the emergency at hand. You are focused on the bugs on the leaves of the trees, and missing the forest.
What separates the modern traditional right (e.g., NRO) from the “alt-right” (e.g.,Taki) is the courage it requires to ask the forbidden question. Courage is a masculine virtue. The feminized dweebs unite to take down John Derbyshire (noticing race is intolerable in polite company, etc.) and beta-orbit their female colleagues (of course there’s nothing wrong with a female president!, etc.). The dividing line is not political. We will be separated by testosterone levels.
Yes, among NAM men, too. Among churchgoers and hedonists, young and old, married and single, artists and STEM specialists. The sexual difference is so fundamental that it is written into our pronouns. Political and cultural lurches are precipitated by the great lie of our age — that we can extinguish nature through rhetoric (and violence), and therefore we can fashion women into men and men into women. Our camp will be divided into liars, with the sheepish masses too complacent to challenge the zeitgeist, and leaders, who will force the issue by fearlessly proclaiming the truth. Nothing real occurs without addressing the lie first.
Now, because the preponderance of pussified people congregate on the left, we mistake the dynamic as a culturally and politically dependent one, and so, like CH above, we look for political solutions. There can be no political solution. The culture is upstream from politics. And the sexual difference is upstream from the culture. The war will be fought and won in the clubs, at the altar, and between the sheets. Marco Rubio’s and Obama’s differences in immigration policy is the shuffling of deck-chairs, while the renaissance of men is the iceberg. We are in this compromised political condition only because we let hos off their leashes. The Nineteenth Amendment, and worse, the culture of sexual equivalence, are the cornerstones of the paternalist security state. Every national stupidity can be traced to allowing our policy be determined by the insecurities of emotionally incontinent women forced into independence. The female creature seeks security, not freedom. So they must use their political freedom to place security above liberty.
I speak from personal and anecdotal experience, not census data. Manliness is not as easily measured as, say, the number of Hispanics who voted, but it is the decisive factor of every struggle. So an inability to “even know what [I] am saying anymore anyway” can be attributed to slowness. Or it can be because boys on the left and the right no longer know any men or have no communication outside the culturally dominant SWPL ethos.
Matt
When will your book be out, Matt? Can’t wait to buy it.
I leave my carbon-copy manifestos in truck stop bathrooms all across the country. I figure once I get the truckers on board, the rest will be easy.
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